Bitcoin futures dropped to around $58,995 on Thursday, marking the lowest level since October 2024 and extending the drawdown from last year’s peak to roughly 52%. The price has struggled around the $60,000 level for most of the year, briefly finding support in February and again earlier this month before a short-lived rebound above $67,000.
Derivatives markets are flashing growing caution. Trading in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) surged to nearly 1.1 million options contracts, about double the recent average. Put volume more than doubled calls, with traders buying 275,000 puts versus just under 129,000 calls, signaling rising downside protection demand.
Sentiment in the options market is leaning heavily bearish. Of $187 million in IBIT options premium traded, $144 million was in puts, and 19 of the 20 most-active contracts were puts. The most popular trade was a near-term $32.5 strike put, which would pay off if Bitcoin falls another 4-5%.
Despite elevated volatility pricing, markets still expect sharp moves in both directions. Implied volatility suggests daily swings of a little over 3%, while pricing for the July 31 expiry implies nearly a 50% chance of another 10% drop. Analysts say weak price action, combined with reduced attention amid strong AI-driven equity markets, is keeping pressure on Bitcoin.
