Diesel prices could remain elevated well into 2027 as refineries struggle to keep pace with recovering fuel demand and rebuild depleted inventories. Goldman Sachs expects global diesel and jet-fuel refining margins to average above $40 a barrel next year, more than double their typical level of around $20.
The pressure comes from a combination of limited refining capacity, disrupted supplies and stronger consumption. Goldman expects refining capacity outside China to shrink by about 300,000 barrels a day in 2026, while around 2 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern capacity remains offline.
The market is also facing a difficult inventory picture. Goldman estimates refined-product stocks could end 2026 at their lowest level in terms of days of supply since at least 2015. Analysts say recent demand declines may reflect temporary inventory management, reserve drawdowns and reduced consumption rather than a permanent drop in fuel use. Rebuilding global inventories while meeting normal demand could take as long as two years.
The Group of Seven’s decision to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined products over four months may provide some short-term relief, but analysts do not expect it to solve the underlying supply deficit. Goldman still sees Brent crude stabilizing around $80 a barrel as flows through the Strait of Hormuz improve, but says any meaningful rebound in fuel demand could push the global refining system toward record utilization levels. That leaves diesel prices vulnerable to renewed gains even if crude markets stabilize.
